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The COVID-19 pandemic reshaped labor markets in complex and unexpected ways, eliminating many jobs and driving workforce participation to record lows. By April 2020 the unemployment rate had risen by more than 10% and millions were out of work. The subsequent recovery saw record gains in job creation and unexpectedly dynamic growth. Associate Professor Eliza Forsythe has worked to map these dramatic extremes, using them to uncover new insights into how labor markets function and how they can fail.
Eliza uses economy-wide data to analyze how employers and workers react to recessions. As the full recessionary impact of the pandemic was becoming clear, Eliza and her co-authors were able to collect data from millions of online job postings, state unemployment claims, and search data from Google trends, allowing for near real-time analysis of the labor market.
By comparing these labor market indicators over time and between states, this work gauged the effects of public stay-at-home orders, showing that the economic impacts of such orders were smaller in magnitude than the effects of the spread of the disease. These analyses can be critical for policy makers looking for guidance when weighing the costs of public health interventions, helping to shape responses to future public health crises.
In expanding our understanding of the labor market during the COVID-19 recession, Eliza conducted an in-depth study of the extent of job losses across different demographic groups. The analysis showed younger workers fared better in this recession than during the Great Recession of 2007–2009, seeing their employment rates recover quickly, while workers in lower-income jobs and some racial minorities saw comparatively worse outcomes.
Eliza strives to make her work on recessions and employment changes highly relevant to policy makers, and has presented her research widely. In addition to keynoting an international conference on COVID-19 impacts on the labor market in Nuremberg, Germany, she has presented her research to the Council of Economic Advisers, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the United Kingdom House of Lords.
Eliza has also cast an eye toward the future of work, exploring the ways in which technological change can reshape jobs. Using rich data from millions of online job postings, she found that firms that adopt technology in office support jobs also upgraded their requirements for new hires. As a result, office support jobs have become increasingly high-skilled, requiring new management and cognitive skills. This technology adoption also reshapes local job markets, increasing overall wages and employment, while resulting in wage and job losses for certain groups such as women without college degrees. In ongoing work, she continues to use online job posting data to investigate how jobs and employment are changing.
In addition to research and public outreach, Eliza teaches labor economics in the PhD program, as well as economics of human resources and the future of work in her joint appointment at the School of Labor and Employment Relations. She works closely with PhD students and frequently collaborates with current and former students.